TRADING SIGNAL USD/JPY

TRADING SIGNAL generated today at 15.pm gmt

 

 

 

1.     Order : buy stop

2.     Entry Time : -

3.     order expiry:

4.     Entry price : 84.05

5.     TP1 : 84.45

6.     TP2 : 84.90

7.     Stop loss :82.90

Comments:
Following break of yesterday high, usdjpy could push higher for a double top at least and possibly 84.90/8510

Technical explanations :
click on below screens to enlarge it

screen 1 : daily
screen 2 : weekly outlook

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Posted in: treding signal usd/jpy

EUROPEAN, US MARKET AND BROKER TIPS

Banks follow Soc Gen higher
European bourses finished higher despite Portuguese news that the nation faces a double-dip recession, and could follow Greece and Ireland down the bail-out route. Meanwhile, any negative reaction that this may have caused was offset by large gains by banks, following suit from French lender Societe Generale, which reported a strong fourth quarter.

The Cac in Paris was 41 higher at 4,151, the Dax in Frankfurt was up 14 at 7,414 while the Ibex in Madrid surged 222 points to 11,048.

French banking titan Societe Generale saw fourth quarter net income quadruple to €874m, from €221m a year ago, beating market consensus of €865m. The 2010 dividend was upped to €1.75 a share, from €0.25 previously.

"The market situation (between) January and now is slightly better than what we saw in the last quarter ... We can see since the beginning of the year a better trend," said deputy chief executive Severin Cabannes.

French banks Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas rose in sympathy.

Spanish banks Bankinter, Bolsas Y Mercados Espanoles, Banco Santander, Banco de Sabadell, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria and Banco Popular Espanol were all higher.

As were German lenders Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank AG, and Italian lenders Banco Popolate Societa Cooperativa, Banca Popolare di Milano, UBI Banca, UniCredito, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Intesa Sanpaolo.

In economic news, Portugal raised €1bn from the sale of 12-month treasury bills, but admits it faces a second recession in three years following tax increases and harsh spending cuts. The bond sale was heavily oversubscribed as investors picked up a rate of 3.987% compared with 3.71% just a few weeks ago.

Economists still rank the country as among those most likely to need an EU bailout sometime this year, and comments from central bank governor Carlos Costa today will have done nothing to change their opinion. “We can say that we are in recession,” Costa told business daily Diario Economico.

“The dynamic of the macro-economic variables will produce what we said and what international institutions confirmed — a recession in 2011 that is the counterpart of the adjustment process, of austerity.”

French drugs giant Sanofi-Aventis has agreed to pay $20.1bn (£12.4bn) for American biotech firm Genzyme. Genzyme shareholders will get $74 in cash per share and may get more further down the line if three of the US company’s drugs do well.

“This agreement with Genzyme is both consistent with our long-term strategy and create significant long-term value for our shareholders,” said Sanofi-Aventis boss Christopher Viehbacher.

Shareholders raised a glass to Dutch brewer Heineken which topped market expectations of full year earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) of €2.5bn with a figure of €2.61bn. Meanwhile, sales declined 2.2% to €16.13bn as beer volumes fell 3.1%.

German automaker Daimler swung to a net profit in the fourth-quarter, and expects earnings to grow substantially in the current year, as sales growth in China and the US is set to continue. However, the group led the fallers on the Dax, losing 3% as the fourth quarter proved a bit of a disappointment.

Fourth quarter EBIT of €1.56bn came in well below market expectations of €2.05bn and a dividend of €1.85 that was 10 cents higher than analysts were expecting was not enough to prevent the shares from shifting into reverse.

Nevertheless, full year EBIT was €7.27bn, compared with a loss of €1.51bn in 2009. "Unit sales will rise (this year) and revenue will grow at a more moderate rate in 2011," the group said in a statement.

Profits at Italian oil and gas group Eni SpA grew in the fourth quarter, as higher crude oil prices offset weak gas operations. Net income increased to €1.72bn, from €1.39bn, beating expectations of €1.59bn. “In exploration and production, where we reported record production, we paved the way for future growth thanks to our entry into new countries including Togo, Democratic Republic of Congo and Poland,” chief executive Paolo Scaroni said.

Abu Dhabi’s state-owned petroleum holding company, International Petroleum Investment (IPI), has agreed to buy French oil colossus Total's stake in oil refiner Espanola de Petroleos (EdP) as part of a €3.97bn offer for the shares in EdP it does not already own. IPI will pay €28 a share in cash for Total's stake, a 23% premium to EdP's closing price in Madrid yesterday.

In broker news German engineering leviathan Siemens got a lift from Barclays which has initiated coverage of the stock with an “overweight” recommendation.

Economic and company data boosts stocks
Stocks are off their earlier levels, but still putting in a decent performance amid well received earnings and economic data.

The S&P 500 is up 4 at 1,332, the NASDAQ is 15 higher at 2,819 and the Dow Jones is 36 better at 12,362.

M&A action was stirring up excitement after Sanofi-Aventis agreed to pay $20.1bn (£12.4bn) for American biotech firm Genzyme.

Genzyme shareholders will get $74 in cash per share and may get more further down the line if three of the US company’s drugs do well.

They’re getting one Contingent Value Right (CVR) for each share they own, which will pay out if multiple-sclerosis drug Lemtrada reaches certain milestones. There could be extra cash if enzyme replacement treatments Cerezyme and Fabrazyme hit certain production volumes this year.

Turning to results, PC giant Dell has surged. After Tuesday’s close it delivered record results for the 2011 fiscal year, helped by a 177% surge in net income in the final quarter. Profits for the three months ended 28 January jumped to $927m from $334m previously thanks to lower input costs and improved product quality. Net income for the year rose 84% to $2.64bn.

Adult entertainment group Playboy Enterprises reported a fourth quarter loss ahead of expectations, but armchair maker La-Z-Boy beat expectations with its quarterly results.

In economic news, there was another increase in wholesale prices in January, up 0.8% after a 0.9% rise the month before, according to Labor Department data.

Core producer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, grew 0.5%, the biggest single increase since October 2008.

Meanwhile, house building was up 14.6% last month to an annual rate of 596,000, though building permits fell 10.4% to 562,000, the Commerce Department said.

However, industrial production dropped in January as milder temperatures kept demand for heating down.

Rolls-Royce, International Power, Weir
UBS is no longer a seller of engine maker Rolls-Royce, but still sees little scope for the group to materially beat expectations.

The broker upgrades Rolls-Royce to a ‘neutral’ recommendation following its 2010 results, saying that “assuming [it’s] premium valuation will persist, then there is less reason to remain a seller of the stock and we upgrade our rating.”

However, “Rolls’s Total Care Accounting means that civil after market growth for 2011 has already been largely predetermined through the number of engines/pounds of thrust sold in the prior year.”

The broker says that there is little upside risk to its 10% after market growth assumption for the current year, and notes that a re-rating from here seems less likely, particularly if its view on a limited earnings per share upside is correct.

With the market determined to value Rolls-Royce at a premium to the sector persists UBS has raised its price target to 660p, from 500p.

Nomura has reinstated its coverage on electricity generator International Power (IPR) with a ‘buy’, saying that the valuation of the new and improved grouplooks attractive, even without considering future growth assets.

“The new IPR, incorporating the international energy assets of GDF Suez, is the only European utility with a true global reach. It does not suffer from the woes facing the rest of the sector (over capacity, low growth, and political risk),” the Japanese broker says.

From an expected earnings per share (EPS) base of 22.9p, the broker estimates an EPS of 35.3p by 2014. This growth comes from contracted assets already under construction, and does not include any new projects beyond those already announced.

While the group has a strong balance sheet and cash flows, the broker notes that its price target of 410p does not even include a reinvestment of surplus cash – “were IPR to invest £1.5bn growth capex [capital expenditure] per annum, we estimate we could add 60p to our fair value.”

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) upgrades Scottish engineer Weir Group from a ‘hold’ to a ‘buy’ and ups its forecasts as it believes 2011/12 consensus upgrades are possible from improved pricing/demand in the mining/oil sectors.

“Weir is, in our view, a quality name in the UK Capital Goods sector and is faced with a number of attractive end-market exposures. In line with our more positive sector stance on the EU mining equipment names, we upgrade our Weir forecasts,” the broker says.

RBS upgrades 2011 and 2012 earnings per share estimates by 6% and 9%, respectively, “taking into account the three acquisitions made in the fourth quarter of 2010, from upping its Minerals/Oils division assumptions, and including the benefit of improving pricing.”

The broker expects a good set of FY2010 results when Weir reports on 3 March, and increases the tprice arget from 1,660p to 1,915p.

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Posted in: and Broker Tips,European,US Market

LONDON MARKET REPORTS

FTSE 100 shrugs off mining weakness

      Market Movers
      techMARK 1,950.10 +1.01%
      FTSE 100 6,085.27 +0.80%
      FTSE 250 11,807.28 +0.49%

The top share index retained its strength to close with good gains, in spite of weakness in the mining sector.

Rocketing commodity prices meant record profits for BHP Billiton in the first half, bankrolling a huge investment programme and share buyback scheme, but the shares still fell.

Profit attributable to shareholders jumped 71.5% to US$10.5bn (£6.5bn) on revenue up 39% to $34.2bn. The group announced an ambitious investment programme that’s expected to top $80bn over five years, and a $10bn share buyback programme, expected to complete by the end of 2011.

Fellow miner Rio Tinto was lower in sympathy, but elsewhere in mining, African Barrick moved ahead after it revealed full year revenue rose to $309.5m in 2010 from $229.6m in 2009. Profit before tax tripled to $104.9m from $34.4m the year before.

Property stocks were in demand on the back of some favourable broker commentary. HSBC has upgraded British Land to overweight from neutral while Land Securities is upgraded to neutral from underweight.

Meanwhile, yesterday's results from British Land prompted Goldman Sachs to lift its price target for the stock from 643p to 645p.

Engineer GKN and insurer Resolution are the best performing blue-chips, however, with the former benefiting from a “buy” recommendation from Investec and the latter from an upbeat note from Redburn Partners.

BG Group has announced yet another new discovery of oil in its highly prospective Santos Basin acreage, offshore Brazil but Tullow Oil has plugged and abandoned its Gharabi-1 well, located in Block 6 offshore Mauritania after poor drilling results.

Brokerage Matrix Group said the Gharabi-1 well result would shave about 2p off its valuation of the firm. “All eyes in the short-term are on the Uganda election scheduled for 18 February. The expectation is for Museveni to be re-elected and for that to be the trigger for final sign-off by Uganda of all remaining obstacles related to ongoing work in the Lake Albert licences,” Matrix analyst Charlie sharp said.

Meanwhile, French oil giant Total is reportedly renegotiating parts of a deal it agreed with Tullow Oil to buy a stake in Tullow's Ugandan oil fields.

In the FTSE 250, Game Group has unveiled its strategy update to investment analysts in London. The proposals will include a greater emphasis on online and digital revenues. The group's chief executive, Ian Shepherd, warned that the group's “gross margin percentage will decrease as online and digital revenues become a larger part of our sales mix.”

Engineering group Morgan Crucible has set itself a target of doubling underlying profits by 2013 after a strong performance in 2010. The firm, which specialises in engineered metals and thermal ceramics, saw profits in the year just ended jump by 115% to £67.7m on revenues up 8% at £1.02bn. Underlying profits rose by 59% to £75.7m.r

Engineering contractor WS Atkins is trading in line with expectations, but government spending cuts mean hundreds of jobs are likely to go by the end of the year. The highways business has been hardest hit by the coalition's spending review, forcing Atkins to axe staff despite a strong forward workload of long term contracts in highway services.

Trading at specialist chocolate retailer Thorntons has turned down since January with trading through its High Street stores described as weak. "As a result the board is now more cautious about Own Store trading for the remainder of the current financial year and including the important trading periods of Mothers' Day and Easter," chairman John von Spreckelsen said.

“This is the latest in a series of disappointments stretching back over a decade,” says David Stoddart, investment analyst at Matrix Group. “The business faces structural challenges that have withstood several sensible-sounding strategic shifts. This time it might be different. Then again, it might not, on which basis we stick with our Sell recommendation,” Stoddart said.


Corporate travel services firm Hogg Robinson said full year profit is expected to be slightly ahead of expectations, despite travel disruption caused by freezing weather conditions, as businesses increase travel budgets. The group issued an upbeat outlook as the group benefits from a recovery in corporate travel budgets as firms lift executive travel bans imposed during the financial crisis.

Shares in Lo-Q, the theme park queuing technology group, rose strongly as it unveiled profits up 18% in the past year as attendances at parks held up despite the economic uncertainty.


FTSE 100 - Risers
GKN (GKN) 217.00p +4.48%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 47.20p +4.31%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 727.00p +3.56%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 1,400.00p +3.09%
Autonomy Corporation (AU.) 1,634.00p +2.77%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 636.50p +2.69%
International Power (IPR) 347.60p +2.60%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,484.00p +2.56%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG) 253.20p +2.55%
Prudential (PRU) 734.00p +2.54%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Serco Group (SRP) 543.00p -1.45%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 2,464.00p -1.44%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 4,520.00p -1.35%
BG Group (BG.) 1,494.50p -1.35%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 1,409.00p -1.26%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,533.00p -1.10%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,386.00p -1.00%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 137.60p -0.99%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 1,979.00p -0.90%
Wolseley (WOS) 2,166.00p -0.87%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Premier Foods (PFD) 27.90p +8.35%
Morgan Crucible Co (MGCR) 299.00p +8.14%
Inchcape (INCH) 414.00p +6.43%
Exillon Energy (EXI) 420.90p +5.52%
Forth Ports (FPT) 1,417.00p +5.12%
William Hill (WMH) 192.30p +5.08%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 177.40p +4.66%
Ladbrokes (LAD) 142.00p +4.41%
Derwent London (DLN) 1,620.00p +3.78%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 405.90p +3.68%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Mitie Group (MTO) 200.00p -5.75%
Catlin Group Ltd. (CGL) 385.60p -3.41%
QinetiQ Group (QQ.) 131.10p -2.60%
CSR (CSR) 429.50p -2.39%
Dixons Retail (DXNS) 21.59p -2.22%
Bovis Homes Group (BVS) 437.10p -2.13%
Chemring Group (CHG) 3,479.00p -2.10%
Britvic (BVIC) 430.00p -1.94%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 188.00p -1.83%
SThree (STHR) 402.20p -1.81%
 

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Posted in: London Market Reports